Three Civil Wars, Two that Matter

King Abdullah of Jordan warns of the threat of three civil wars in 2007, and calls on the international community to strive to prevent them from breaking out in the Palestinian areas, Lebanon and Iraq.

King Abdullah, a strong U.S. ally, sees Palestine as the core issue and the highest priority. His population is made up in large part of Palestinian refugees and their descendants, so this isn't surprising.

The notion that the Palestinian issue is the lynchpin to the Middle East, an idea posited by Tony Blair earlier this month, is an attractive one to Arabs that allows them to place the blame for their problems elsewhere. On us. On Israel.

The Palestinians have been fighting with each other and with Israel for a long time, and are likely to continue at some level of intensity indefinitely, without affecting the broader region.

Lebanon and Iraq are in greater crisis, and are the focal points of interference by Syria and Iran. Events in those countries have a much greater likelihood of broader ramifications, because if they are not dealt with, the power of two terrorism-supporting nations will grow, and the cost in both Lebanon and Iraq will far outstrip anything that is likely to happen in the Palestinian areas.

While Lebanon is indirectly related to Israel -- it is attractive as a staging base for Iran and Syria in operations against Israel -- that problem is unlikely to be solved by any Palestinian peace deal in the short term. In fact, Israeli-Palestinain peace cannot be achieved until Iranian and Syrian influence are knocked out of Lebanon.

By "international community," by the way, I hope King Abdullah means heavy involvement and pressure exerted by other Arab powers, notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with a view to ending violence in all three countries. Use of the West as a crutch and a whipping boy has to end.

Meanwhile, this Bloomberg article states that Moqtada al-Sadr is issuing ultimatums to al-Maliki over his meeting this week with Bush, threatening to withdraw from the Iraqi governing coalition if it goes ahead.

Excuse me, but how long is this low-grade Iranian-supported thug going to be allowed to exist, let alone call the shots in the Iraqi government?