It will be interesting after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel in Lebanon ... not to mention last summer's hijacking of the nation by Hezbollah ... not to mention last year's assassination of Rafik Hariri ... not to mention the last 25 years of Syrian and Iranian interference in Lebanon and now in Iraq ... it will be interesting to see if anyone will still counsel talks with Syria and Iran under any terms that do not include a very real threat of force. The Iraq Study Group, Congress, Tony Blair, Henry Kissinger. Whether any of them believe these are regimes with whom one can talk in any meaningful way, absent demonstrated force in Iraq against Shiite and Sunni terrorists that are accommodated by these pariah states. Absent the credible threat against regimes that make a mockery of democracy and impose a cynical, murderous foreign policy on their neighbors.
The Lebanese, cursed by geography and history, were making the best of a bad lot, some of their leaders bravely standing up for national sovereignty. But their work was undone as long as they allowed a private terrorist army to dictate their foreign policy, as Hezbollah did.
Israel went halfway to doing Lebanon and the world a favor and destroying Hezbollah last summer. But Israel knew that to do so would require even greater destruction in Lebanon and direct attacks in Syria. World opinion in large part was already inexplicably against Israel's act of self defense, and Israelis themselves had no desire to repeat their Lebanese occupation experience, ended only six years ago. So Israel compromised, and when France offered half-heartedly to stand as a buffer force, Israel went along. That left a seemingly powerful, adult nation in a position of responsibility in southern Lebanon. To the extent the French will ever take responsibility for anything.
Now, there are fears that Lebanon will explode again.
This is the thing about dirty jobs that need to be done. They can only be ignored or left half-done for so long.
Saddam Hussein, and the ethnic bloodbath his policies engendered there. Iran, ruled by a regime that denies its reform-minded people a free vote, actively supports terrorists and seeks to undermine other nations in the region. Syria, another terrorist-supporting, meddling nation, ruled by a second-generation despot.
Sooner or later, all of them must be dealt with. Removing the stain of Saddam's rule from Iraq remains a work in progress, where the mistake was made of going in light. The United States, now a neighbor of Iran and Syria as an occupying power in Iraq, with major strategic interests regardless of that, cannot hope for a desireable outcome there unless it wields and expresses a credible threat of force.
Peace cannot be achieved in the region -- from Lebanon to Iraq -- while these nations are allowed to act unchallenged. So perhaps, in a way, Tony Blair is right. There needs to be a comprehensive peace in the region. But it needs to start in Iraq.
This is why the current move to restrain the militias in Baghdad must be stepped up. This is why the calls for more troops there must be heeded. This is why the United States must pursue and destroy militias there ruthlessly and in force.
This is why these regimes need to know that their missteps will cost them, and that their own infrastructure, seats of power and persons are not immune from our threat of force as long as they abet murder, spread instability through the region, and seek weapons of mass destruction.
This is why the United States and the United States military must, at longlast, be placed on a war footing. The volunteer force, through the encouragement of our leaders, the example of our youthful elites and recruitment incentives, must be expanded. Political efforts to undermine America's capacity to wage war by calling for a draft should be set aside, but if such a measure is to be contemplated, it has to be with the sincere support of all involved. To pursue compulsory service under any other terms is to toy with the lives of our nation's youth.
Is any of this going to happen? Maybe. Probably not.
We can push a few thousand more troops into Iraq, having already signalled to our enemies that it is now a waiting game. We can talk. We can hope other human beings who hold the fate of nations in their hands would respond to appeals to cooperate for peace. But we would be naive, given their history as recent as yesterday, to think that they will. We can encourage and support peaceful regime-change in these rogue nations. But absent demonstrated power, it is absurd to think we can influence their actions in the slightest.
Updates:
Freedomszone: this could take some explaining.
Michael Totten, a must-read take from a guy who's been around the block in Lebanon
Mohammed at Iraq The Model, ever a clear thought, from the crucible
Gatewaypundit connects the dots, graphically
Dan Riehl has his doubts
Confederate Yankee, on kneecapping snakes, when you need to go for the head: Whether or not the President acknowledges it, a state of war exists between the United States and Syria and Iran.
Shrinkwrapped peels back the plastic on history and pulls out the SmartSparrows and Bionic Wasps
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
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9 comments:
I fear that our glorious leaders (on the advice of James Baker) are going to keep talking and talking and talking until we're forced into the really big, ugly mess they hoped to avoid by talking. You're right, if we don't step up and do the hard things now, our options are going to be few and nasty later. But how do you get TPTB to listen?
There is an interesting letter at the Mark Steyn site, by a history teacher. He believes that Americans will pursue a war for 2 years. That is, 1/3 of the population are supporters; 1/3 are always against war; and 1/3 will go along with the war party... for two years. Only.
This is probably correct. The trouble is, I do not believe that this war is optional. The USA cannot avoid this, and neither can its allies.
However, some 2/3 of the American citizenry - and some 99% of Canadians - believe this war is optional. This will not change until Something Terrible happens.
Notice Ahmadinegadddd's swagger. It doesn't matter what Baker or Condi or Blair want or say.
It is all about Events, dear boy, Events. (McMillan??)
Now that's a poignant piece of writing, jules. Bravo.
You couldn't be more right: history simply doesn't care. It's the most objective, unbiased, unfeeling institution there is. It doesn't go where we would prefer it to go -- it goes where events drive it to go.
Oh, that it might be so easy as simply having a dialogue.
The Israeli population has been through this for longer than the rest of us. And virtually all of them -- left, right, and center -- have long since given up on the prospects of negotiating with people who want to exterminate them.
Eventually, we will too. But I fear that it will have to become much worse before we muster the resolve.
TPTB are listening, Rebecah. Unfortunately, what they're being told is that people don't see the need to fight -- much less fight to win -- this war.
As heather said, most people see it as optional. And as the time has grown between 9/11 and the present, the numbers who see it that way have grown with it.
Many people see what's happening in Iraq as diversionary and unnecessary, rather than central to any particular struggle for our existence and well-being.
The US (and UK, Australia, Canada, Germany, etc) are still democracies -- which mean that the people still get the final word.
But the people are heretofore being deftly fooled by our enemies.
The people aren't being fooled by our enemies. Our enemies have been quite explicit about their designs and brazenly clear about the means they will use to effect their plans: they have told us openly that they will use our media against us.
The people are being fooled not by our enemies, but by our media. We could not have won WWII with such a counterforce and we will not win this war with one. It is going to get a lot worse before the American public wakes up, and even then Bush will be blamed for stirring up the hornet's nest.
The Islamic fascists brilliantly are turning up the heat on the pots slowly as we the Western frogs get cooked slowly but surely. Their advance teams are already here (CAIR, etc.) using our liberties against us. Furthermore, they use our own pathologies (diversity, moral relativism) against us like judo. And with the media's active antipathy for the Bush Administration, the whole is quite a bit larger than sum of the parts.
No. This is a clever enemy: they are hiding in plain sight--but only because we let them.
The previous comment is right on target. The West's lust for materialism and self (& instant) gratification combined with the requirements of democracy acts as a binding hand in the war against the Islamic murderers. Jules is right...this is a war that must be fought as a war. Force needs to be met with force. For America and the West, it won't happen until several more thousand perhaps millions of their citizenry lay dead at the hands of the single-minded Islamists.
...Peace cannot be achieved in the region....
Here's the thing. I don't believe Peace can be achieved absent Victory, and that is the one thing that has not been definately settled in the Mid-East. A negotiated Peace is just a cease-fire...nothing has been solved yet.
Tangentially, when Winston Churchill held up two fingers, we all knew his V was for "Victory". When the Vietnam-era protestors held up the same sign, it meant "Peace". Peace without victory is hollow and temporary.
Let the Democrats do as they wish and let's watch evil slowly take over the world.
This war started on November 4, 1979 when "students" in Iran took over the US embassy and held our people hostage.
Since that time, Iran founded and funded Hezbollah to act as it's proxy against both Israel and the United States with the help of Syria.
Neither Democrat or Republican administrations seem willing to take this matter as seriously as the Iranians, Syrians and Hezbollah do. For them, this is deadly serious.
So far they've killed over 280 Americans in Beirut and elsewhere.
We've tried to ignore the problem and hope it goes away.
Clearly it's not going away. And it certainly won't if we go for another round of appeasement.
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